Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Morgan Stanley pegs Guyana oil reserves at 6 billion barrels

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Guyana’s gross recoverable oil resource could stand at 6 billion barrels with potential for significant upside above this level according to US multinational investment bank, Morgan Stanley.

In a recent research paper, the bank said its estimate is modestly above ExxonMobil’s 5.5 bboe and with additional appraisal and exploration, this is expected to be revised higher over the next 12 months.

“We continue to expect HES and XOM’s gross production on the Stabroek block to be ~1 MMboe/d by the end of 2025, eclipsing guidance for >750 Mbbl/d by 2025. While our price target conservatively reflects 6 Bboe of gross recoverable resource, modestly above XOM’s disclosed estimate of >5.5 Bboe, we see the potential for significant additional upside above this level,” Morgan Stanley said.

ExxonMobil has said that the last three discoveries in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana – Haimara, Tilapia and Yellowtail – will add to the 5.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent resource estimation determined following the tenth discovery.Jack Williams, Senior Vice President of ExxonMobil Corporation made this disclosure while answering questions during a Q1 2019 earnings call on Friday, April 26.

Morgan Stanley said it expects “the resource estimate to continue to be revised higher over the next 12+ months from additional appraisal and exploration,” adding, “Post first-oil at Phase 2(2022), we expect Guyana to become fully self funding with excess free cash flow under almost any development scenario.”

To date, the US oil major has made a record 13 discoveries offshore Guyana and has since ramped-up its drill capacity as exploration continues and development drilling for the Liza Phase 1 project is underway.

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