Guyana’s next offshore oil projects will increasingly serve two purposes: adding new production while replacing output lost as older developments mature.
The distinction is becoming more relevant as the Stabroek Block’s producing portfolio ages and the Uaru project prepares to become Guyana’s fifth offshore development.
Uaru is designed to produce up to 250,000 barrels per day (b/d), but that does not necessarily mean 250,000 b/d will be added to Guyana’s national production level. Some of the new barrels will offset declines at projects already in operation.
The trend is clearest at Liza 1, which began production in December 2019 and was later optimized to produce up to 160,000 b/d.
Production data show the development averaged about 147,000 b/d in January 2025. By January 2026, that had fallen to about 131,000 b/d, followed by 129,000 b/d in February, 127,000 b/d in March and 122,000 b/d in April.
That longer trend provides an indication of declining output at Guyana’s oldest development.
The changing production profile means the impact of new projects is better measured by their contribution to net national growth, rather than simply adding their stated production capacity to existing output.
For now, however, the production added by new projects is expected to substantially outweigh declines from older developments, allowing Guyana’s overall output to continue rising sharply.
For example, if production across existing developments were to fall by 30,000 b/d by the time a new 250,000-b/d project reaches capacity, the resulting net increase would be about 220,000 b/d, assuming other factors remain unchanged.
This dynamic will become increasingly important as Guyana brings additional projects online.
Uaru, a US$12.7 billion development targeting more than 800 million barrels of recoverable oil, is expected to take national production beyond one million b/d. It will be followed by Whiptail, another 250,000-b/d development.
By then, Liza 1 and Liza 2 will have been producing for several years, while Payara and Yellowtail will also be further into their production lives.
Successive Stabroek projects will therefore not simply stack new production on top of an unchanged base. An increasing portion of new production will be needed to replace declining output from older projects, with the remainder determining how quickly national production continues to grow.
