Gabon oil production expected to remain unaffected following military coup

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A military coup has unfolded in the African nation of Gabon, unseating the long-standing regime of President Ali Bongo Ondimba. The president, who had been in power for 14 years, faced accusations of corruption during his tenure, which prompted discontent among the citizens of Gabon. The coup, occurring amid a backdrop of increasing instability in Africa’s former French colonies, has raised concerns about the region’s democratic progress.

President Ali Bongo Ondimba, whose family has ruled Gabon for over half a century, recently claimed victory in a disputed election. Minutes after the election results were announced, the military took swift action, operationalising the coup and effectively taking control of the country. President Bongo was reportedly placed under house arrest, and his son was arrested as well.

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The military coup was announced on national television, with the military declaring that the election results have been voided. Western media reported that several government bodies, including both houses of parliament, were dissolved, leaving the country in a state of political flux.

Gabon produces approximately 210,000 barrels of oil per day, making it a relatively minor contributor to global crude supply.

Despite the upheaval caused by the military coup, reports suggest that oil production in Gabon is likely to remain largely unaffected. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, industry sources indicate that the coup’s orchestrators, the military generals, have no plans to disrupt oil fields or production. Major oil companies and traders are cautiously observing the situation, yet early indications suggest that the new rulers are prioritising continuity in oil production.

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The international community has expressed concerns about the coup in Gabon. Organizations like the African Union and the United Nations have voiced apprehensions about the erosion of democratic norms in the region, given the recent string of coups in African countries that were once French colonies. Nations such as Russia, China, and France have also expressed their unease over the political turmoil.

In a video message, former President Ali Bongo Ondimba called on the international community to intervene and address the situation. Allegations of the Bongo family hoarding the country’s oil wealth underscore the economic challenges Gabon faces. 

According to S&P, experts predict a cautious approach by the new rulers in the short term when it comes to managing the business environment. However, history has shown that economic interference may increase over time, potentially affecting various sectors.

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