Guyana’s deepwater volumes remain central to the pool of “advantaged barrels” that analysts say can withstand prolonged low-price environments. This is according to Norway-based research and energy intelligence company, Rystad Energy.
During a recent episode of the firm’s Let’s Talk Energy podcast, Vice President, Radhika Bansal, said the firm tested the economic resilience of regional volumes across multiple Brent scenarios. “It’s not about high oil prices. It’s about testing the competitiveness of these volumes at different oil price scenarios…especially the low oil price scenarios.”
She said the results show that South America’s new output is structurally robust. “The South American barrels are actually extremely competitive at even US$40 per barrel Brent price scenario…driven by their low-cost deep water barrels.”
Guyana stands out in that group. Its Stabroek Block projects feature “fast development cycles, high-quality reservoirs and breakevens at the lower end of the global offshore curve,” according to Bansal. She said these characteristics translate into stability even when prices dip.
“It shows relatively muted price sensitivity when you run these at lower oil prices. It generates a lot of confidence in the South American barrels actually making it to market between now and 2030,” Bansal noted.
These volumes fit squarely into what analysts classify as low-cost, advantaged barrels. Bansal said this matters because current producers will supply less than half of today’s volumes by decade’s end, leaving room only for the most competitive new sources from frontier basins. “We require more volumes from the underdevelopment and discovery life cycle fields.”
Bansal said these fundamentals make Guyana and its deepwater peers important to the 2030 outlook, even if discoveries slow. The basin’s economics give analysts confidence that the country remains among the barrels most likely to reach market under any foreseeable price environment.
Oil production in Guyana is being undertaken by ExxonMobil. It currently has four developments in operation: Liza 1 and 2, Payara and Yellowtail. Two other projects, Uaru and Whiptail are currently under construction. These projects have industry-leading breakevens of US$25-35 per barrel Brent, according to Exxon’s Stabroek Block co-venturer, Hess.
