AMI sees Trinidad gas sales being better off if Biden beats Trump

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Trinidad’s upstream gas sector could use every boost it can get, including Joe Biden’s decision to withhold approvals for new competitive U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects. 

Americas Market Intelligence (AMI) noted in a recent analysis that Trinidad’s economy “relies a great deal on its natural gas industry, its ability to export LNG and convert it into downstream bi-products.”

AMI said Trinidad’s latest economic uptick comes with the hope that it can replace some of the U.S. gas that won’t make it to Europe, as well as the role it will play as oil begins to flow again from Venezuela to the U.S. and elsewhere.

The firm concluded, therefore, that if any nation is rooting for a Democratic victory in the 2024 U.S. elections, it is Trinidad and Tobago. Joe Biden, who is on track to be the 2024 Democratic nominee, is at least concerned about environmentalist pressure to temper the U.S. oil and gas industry.

Donald Trump, as AMI put it, stands an even chance of retaking the White House, which would open the U.S. natural gas taps again.

“For years, U.S. natural gas, some of the cheapest in the world, was trapped inside continental USA by virtue of lack of export terminals,” AMI stated. “President Trump ended that moratorium [imposed by Barack Obama], export terminals were built, and U.S. LNG flooded global markets, including filling about 60% of the gap left by sanctions on Russian gas by Western Europe.”

AMI believes Trinidad gas would have a role to play as oil begins to flow from Venezuela to the U.S. and elsewhere. “But such prospects,” AMI said, “are dimming by the day. Venezuela’s President Maduro has squandered what little goodwill he gained in DC…”

The U.S. reimposed sanctions on Venezuela after the Bolivarian Republic’s top court affirmed bans on key opposition candidates running against Nicolas Maduro in the presidential race expected this year. 

It is not looking good for Trinidad. In AMI’s annual analysis of Latin American investment destinations, titled ‘The Good, The Bad And The Ugly’, Trinidad was grouped with The Bad. Out of 21 economies, it ranks 16, scoring unfavorably in metrics related to growth and foreign direct investment (FDI). 

Guyana, on the other hand, topped the ranking, with leading scores in virtually all of AMI’s metrics.


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