The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday, painted a gloomy picture of global development with much uncertainty ahead.
According to the IMF, global output contracted in the second quarter of this year, owing to downturns in China and Russia, while consumer spending in the United States undershot expectations.
Already weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic, several other shocks hit the world’s economy: higher-than-expected inflation worldwide – especially in the United States and major European economies – that triggered tighter financial conditions; a worse-than-anticipated slowdown in China, reflecting COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns; and further negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine.
The IMF baseline projection is for the world’s economic growth to slow to 3.2% this year – 0.4% lower than what was projected in April.
“Global inflation has been revised up due to food and energy prices as well as lingering supply-demand imbalances, and it is anticipated to reach 6.6% in advanced economies and 9.5% in emerging market and developing economies this year—upward revisions of 0.9% and 0.8% point, respectively,” the IMF report noted.
And in 2023, the IMF noted further that disinflationary monetary policy is expected to bite, with global output growing by merely 2.9%.
But Guyana is expected to stand out above the rest, owing to its booming oil and gas sector.
Last month, the World Bank in its Global Economic Prospects report outlined that Guyana is leading the pack with the highest forecast for Gross Domestic Project (GDP) growth for Latin America and the Caribbean Region with 47.9%. And that figure is followed by 34.3% GDP growth in 2023 – still representing the highest growth forecast for the Region.
Even further, Guyana’s Minister of Finance, Dr. Ashni Singh reported a revised 2022 growth projection for the country: 57.8% in 2022 up from the 47.5% projection made earlier this year.
Government also expects the non-oil economy to grow 7.7%.
Guyana currently has two floating, production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessels operating at the Liza Phases 1 and 2 projects in the Stabroek Block which spans 6.6 million acres (26,800 square kilometers). Two other oil projects are set to come on stream by 2025.
ExxonMobil affiliate, Esso Exploration and Production Guyana Limited is the operator of the oil-rich block with a 45% working interest. Hess Guyana Exploration Ltd. holds 30% interest, and CNOOC Petroleum Guyana Limited holds 25% interest.