Guyana oil revenues to break US$1 billion mark this year; exceed US$7.5 billion by 2030 – Rystad Energy

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Bolstered by ExxonMobil’s industry leading production and development pace in the Stabroek Block, Guyana’s oil and gas revenues are on track to break the US$1 billion mark this year and accelerate to US$7.5 billion annually in 2030, research by Rystad Energy shows.

The independent energy research and business intelligence company said on Friday that 2022 is set to be a turning point for the Guyana government to start capitalising on the vast reserves in the offshore field, with revenues more than doubling over 2021 levels.

As if the foregoing feats were not remarkable enough, especially during a time when host countries and oil explorers are faced with a confluence of economic aches from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, Rystad said Guyana continues to set itself apart with low breakevens and below-average emissions intensity. It said two notable factors will propel Guyana from a relatively small producer to a global leader in the coming years, solidifying the country’s position as a competitive and policy-friendly player for offshore production.

On an annual basis, Rystad said the government’s annual take from production is expected to increase to US$4.2 billion in 2025. Government revenue is then projected to fall to US$2.4 billion in 2027 on account of a projected drop in oil prices and continued spending on the Stabroek block’s development.

Still, the Norway-based group said production growth is set to accelerate, with revenue momentum resuming as new pre-Final Investment Decision (FID) projects are sanctioned and brought online, leading to peak government revenues of US$16 billion in 2036. Importantly, these projections do not factor in undiscovered resources.

In terms of ongoing projects, the Liza Phase 1 development, which began production in December 2019 utilising the Liza Destiny floating production, storage, and offloading vessel (FPSO) with a production capacity of approximately 120,000 gross barrels of oil per day, recently completed production optimisation work that expanded its production capacity to more than 140,000 gross barrels of oil per day.

The Liza Phase 2 development, utilising the Liza Unity FPSO, began production in February 2022 and is expected to reach its production capacity of approximately 220,000 gross barrels of oil per day by the third quarter.

The third development at Payara is ahead of schedule and now expected to come online in late 2023 utilising the Prosperity FPSO with a production capacity of approximately 220,000 gross barrels of oil per day.

The fourth development, Yellowtail, is expected to come online in 2025, utilising the ONE GUYANA FPSO with a production capacity of approximately 250,000 gross barrels of oil per day.

At least six FPSOs with combined production capacity of more than 1 million gross barrels of oil per day are expected to be in the Stabroek Block in 2027, with the potential for up to 10 FPSOs to develop gross discovered recoverable resources.

The Stabroek Block measures 6.6 million acres, ExxonMobil affiliate Esso Exploration and Production Guyana Limited (EEPGL) is the operator and holds 45% interest. Hess Guyana Exploration Ltd. holds 30% interest and CNOOC Petroleum Guyana Limited holds 25% interest.


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