The number of major oil projects to be sanctioned globally in 2022 is anticipated to be in the mid-30s, double the 2021 figure and higher than pre-covid levels; a possible sign of an ‘if not now, then when’ mentality, says UK-based consultancy group, Wood Mackenzie.
With the focus on advantaged barrels, greenfield Final Investment Decisions are being dominated by low-breakeven, low-carbon deepwater projects, mainly located in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, Guyana, and West Africa.
“A significant uptick in upstream investment is expected, with overall global upstream investment of over US$400 billion in 2022, up 9% from last year,” WoodMac said in a new analysis.
ExxonMobil’s largest project to date in Guyana – the Yellowtail Development – is expected to be sanctioned early this year and will deliver 250,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) by 2026, adding to the combined output of approximately 560,000 bpd from Liza Phase 1, 2 and Payara.
Minister of Natural Resources, Vickram Bharrat said with the combined output from these projects, the government can expect to make around 50 oil lifts per year by 2026. This represents a massive increase from current exports of 4 and 5 lifts for 2020 and 2021, respectively.
“So, when you crunch the numbers, 50 lifts at a million barrels and based on the oil price today if it continues along that trend, you can see or get an idea of the direct proceeds coming to Guyana…And we are not even talking royalties yet,” he told OilNOW in a previous interview.
At US$80 a barrel, Guyana would get US$4,000,000,000 (GYD$836,902,800,000) for 50 lifts. Taking this into consideration, Mr. Bharrat said, “The proceeds from oil and gas will be mind-blowing.” For a better understanding of the impact of the revenue flows to come, Guyana’s 2021 budget totalled $383B. It therefore means that oil proceeds would be more than twice the national budget by 2026.
Energy research and business intelligence company Rystad Energy said many global E&P companies have revised down their planned investments in the coming years, initially due to lower oil prices but now also due to a broader energy transition strategy.
“However, given the high competitiveness of the Guyanese and Surinamese finds, greenfield capex in these countries has been rising and is expected to keep climbing in the medium term,” Rystad Energy said.
Guyana is expected to account for about 77% or almost $50 billion of the total greenfield capex spent in the region this decade, followed by Suriname with expected investments of about $15 billion.