Venezuela could technically return to oil production of three million barrels per day (mbpd), but only around 2040 and only with sustained and large-scale investment, according to new analysis by Rystad Energy.
Recent geopolitical developments and growing speculation about potential re-engagement by international oil companies have revived questions about how quickly Venezuela could restore lost output. The country holds some of the world’s largest oil reserves.
In a post shared on LinkedIn on January 6, Rystad Energy said the recovery path would require approximately US$183 billion in oil and gas capital spending from 2026 onward, an amount it noted is “roughly equivalent to one year of current North America land capex”.
The firm said near-term gains are limited. “Only 300–350 kbpd (thousands of barrels per day) can be restored quickly with limited spend,” Rystad stated, adding that growth beyond 1.4 million bpd would require sustained investment over many years.
To simply prevent further decline, Rystad estimated that about US$53 billion would be needed over the next 15 years to keep output flat at roughly 1.1 million bpd.
Reaching the three million bpd level by 2040 would demand not only upstream investment but also heavy spending on pipelines and crude upgraders. Rystad said at least US$30–35 billion of international capital would need to be committed early for such a recovery to be plausible.
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The analysis also highlighted broader economic impacts, noting that the proposed spending would translate into about US$156 billion in oilfield service purchases, led by fabrication and construction.
However, Rystad cautioned that capital alone would not be enough. The recovery “hinges on deep governance reforms and renewed investor confidence in Venezuela’s investment climate,” the firm said, underscoring the structural challenges facing Venezuela’s oil sector.
