Snapshot – world in coronavirus-induced recession

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COVID-19 has now spread to 190 countries with more than 8 million confirmed cases and more than 430,000 deaths, GlobalData said in its latest virus-tracking report. The highest official case counts are in the US, Brazil, Russia, India, UK, Spain, Italy, Peru, France, and Iran.
Forecasters Sound the Alarm
  • Global foreign direct investment flows are forecast to fall by up to 40% in 2020, from a value of $1.54 trillion in 2019, according to UNCTAD. (16 June)
  • Morgan Stanley foresees a V-shaped recovery of the world economy. Global economic growth is forecasted to contract by 8.6% (YoY) in Q2 and bounce back to record a 3% growth in Q1 2021. (June 15) The British economy contracted sharply by 20.5% in April compared to 5.8% decline in March, according to the Office for National Statistics. (June 13)
  • Fitch revised its 2020 forecast for world economic growth to -4.6% from -3.9%. Its forecast for emerging economies (ex. China) dropped to -4.5% from -1.9%. (May 27)
  • Singapore’s real GDP is forecasted to contract within a range of 4% to 7% in 2020, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry. (May 26)
  • The Congressional Budget Office of the US foresees economic growth to contract by 11% in Q2 2020 and deficit to swell to $2 trillion in 2020. (May 19)
  • Deloitte has downgraded its 2020 UK GDP forecast, with an expected contraction of 11.7% compared to its previous estimate of 6.8%. (May 19)
  • HSBC revised its global economic growth forecast for 2020 to -4.8% in May from -3.3% in April. The bank downgraded estimates for both developed (-7.1% from -5.9%) and emerging nations (-1.7% from 0.5%). It forecasts the US to contract by 7% and China to grow at a slower pace of 1.7%. (May 15)
  • Goldman Sachs estimates the US economy to shrink by 39% in Q2 2020. (May 14)
Source: GlobalData
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