Going back to Venezuela might be a stretch for big oil with other more attractive places nearby like Guyana.
That was the assessment from Texas-based energy attorney Ted Borrego in an S&P Global article published May 20, as analysts weighed whether Venezuela’s planned debt restructuring could eventually reopen the door to major upstream investment.
The Venezuelan government announced on May 13 that it had launched a comprehensive process to restructure the country’s external public debt and obligations owed by state oil company PDVSA. S&P reported that Venezuela’s debt burden is estimated at between US$150 billion and US$200 billion across sovereign and quasi-sovereign obligations.
Analysts cited by S&P said the process could take years. Some expect progress through 2027, while others warn that Venezuela’s liabilities, creditor mix, sanctions exposure, infrastructure problems, and governance risks make the restructuring unusually complex.
That leaves a key question for oil majors: why wait on Venezuela when Guyana is already delivering?
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Guyana has emerged as one of the most attractive offshore oil provinces in the world, driven by a large discovered resource base, light to medium sweet crude, low-cost deepwater developments, and a government approval process that has enabled projects in the Stabroek Block to move from discovery to production at exceptional speed.
The contrast is stark. Venezuela offers enormous legacy reserves, but investors must price in sanctions risk, unresolved debt claims, infrastructure deterioration, workforce gaps, security risks, and the possibility of policy reversals. Guyana, by comparison, has provided a clearer operating environment for ExxonMobil, Hess/Chevron, and CNOOC to sanction and execute a string of multi-billion-dollar projects.
OilNOW has repeatedly reported on Guyana’s expanding offshore development pipeline, including the rapid buildout of Stabroek Block projects and the country’s rise as a major new crude producer. That momentum has helped keep Guyana in the investment spotlight at a time when global oil companies are becoming more selective about where they commit long-cycle capital.
ExxonMobil and its Stabroek Block partners already have multiple producing developments offshore Guyana and are advancing additional projects intended to lift national production capacity toward 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d). The Hammerhead development, the seventh sanctioned project, received the required government and regulatory approvals in 2025 and will add about 250,000 b/d of capacity. It is targeted to come online in 2029.
The pace of execution has also been a selling point. Yellowtail, Guyana’s fourth offshore development, started up ahead of schedule in 2025, adding another major tranche of production capacity and reinforcing the perception that Guyana can approve, build, and bring projects online with unusual speed for a new deepwater producer.
For investors, that combination matters. Low break-even barrels are valuable, but they become more attractive when paired with regulatory predictability, repeatable project execution, and a government that has shown willingness to approve successive developments.
Venezuela may still improve. S&P Global Energy CERA analysts said the country’s risk ranking could rise considerably over the next five years if sanctions, fiscal terms, contract awards, and regulatory approvals continue to improve. But even under that more optimistic view, Venezuela is still trying to rebuild investor confidence from a very low base.
Guyana does not have to rebuild that confidence in the same way. It has already attracted the capital, approved the projects, and moved barrels to market.
Borrego’s point captures the competitive challenge facing Caracas. Some smaller operators and service companies may be willing to accept Venezuelan risk earlier. But for the majors, the opportunity set is broader.
“The big guys? There are so many other places that they can make money that going back to Venezuela is going to be a real stretch,” Borrego told S&P. “There are a lot of places in Latin America that are much more attractive, e.g., Guyana, just next door, or in the rest of the world that don’t have the problems inherent in Venezuela.”
That is the investment reality Venezuela must overcome. Debt restructuring may be a necessary step toward reviving its oil sector, but it is not enough on its own. As long as Guyana continues to offer low-cost barrels, timely approvals, and visible project execution, the region’s most compelling upstream growth story may remain firmly offshore Georgetown rather than back in Caracas.
