Guyana is among the key areas attracting high-impact offshore exploration as major oil companies increase investment in ultra-deepwater drilling to secure future supply, according to an April 23 analysis by Wood Mackenzie.
The report said recent discoveries by ExxonMobil offshore Guyana are shaping where drilling is concentrated, alongside activity in Brazil, Côte d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Cyprus and the Black Sea.
The world’s 30 largest exploration and production companies face production declines of nearly 40% between 2025 and 2040, the report stated. This outlook is driving renewed focus on frontier exploration to support energy security and diversify supply.
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Wood Mackenzie said the upstream sector faces a 300-billion-barrel oil shortfall by 2050. Existing producing fields are expected to deliver about 700 billion of the nearly trillion barrels required to meet cumulative liquids demand.
“Companies need to look beyond near-term volatility and shape resource capture strategies to fill the gap in volumes,” the report stated.
Major oil companies are taking larger ownership positions in frontier prospects to secure resources. BP holds full equity in the Bumerangue discovery offshore Brazil, announced in August 2025. Wood Mackenzie estimates the development could be valued at US$5.7 billion.
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Seven major oil companies, along with national oil companies including Petrobras, PETRONAS and Türkiye’s TPAO, are leading ultra-deepwater exploration in water depths exceeding 1,500 meters. Independent firms such as Murphy, APA Corporation and Woodside are also active.
Exploration spending averaged US$19 billion annually between 2021 and 2025 across 633 wells. In 2025, spending totaled US$16 billion across 388 wells. Wood Mackenzie said investment remained stable despite rising rig costs.
Non-operating partners, including QatarEnergy, continue to provide capital through joint ventures in Brazil, Namibia, Cyprus and the Republic of Congo.
“The first four big wells we tracked in 2026 came in dry – that’s the game, and players know the risks,” said Andrew Latham, Senior Vice President, Energy Research.
He said single discoveries in ultra-deepwater can deliver strong returns when successful.
“When ultra-deepwater exploration works, single discoveries like Bumerangue generate many billions in value. Companies with deepwater expertise are taking concentrated equity positions because the economics work at US$65 Brent,” Latham said.
Wood Mackenzie identified 23 high-impact wells for 2026. These include Petrobras’ Morpho-1, with an estimated 800 million barrels of oil equivalent potential, and Equinor’s S-M-1378-1 in Brazil’s Santos Basin.
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