Guyana’s offshore oil surge continues to rank among the world’s fastest-growing conventional developments, but its pace is being outstripped by shale, as upstream companies renew efforts to expand unconventional supply globally, according to Wood Mackenzie’s April report.
The report indicates that Guyana, described as “the industry’s largest conventional growth play,” has increased production significantly since 2019.
For comparison, it notes that US unconventional output has grown by more than four times that rate over the same period.
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“US shale has been a 20-year growth engine for global upstream, but the sector is now maturing,” the authors stated, pointing to a shift by operators seeking new sources of scale.
Offshore Guyana’s growth is being driven by developments led by ExxonMobil and its Stabroek Block co-venturers, where multiple floating production, storage and offloading vessels are already producing and more projects are lined up this decade.
The Wood Mackenzie analysis places that expansion within a wider supply shift, alongside companies revisiting international shale prospects after earlier attempts in the 2010s failed to deliver at scale.
“International shale is likely to come into increasing focus,” the report stated, citing geopolitical tensions and the need to diversify supply.
Earlier exploration campaigns referred to as global shale 1.0 struggled due to high costs, regulatory barriers, and competition from the Permian Basin, where projects were cheaper and faster to develop.
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That dynamic has shifted. The report states there is now “no ‘new Permian’ in the US,” removing a major competing growth option and strengthening the case for international shale development.
Operators are now focusing on a smaller group of high-potential shale plays globally, supported by improved technology and better subsurface data that have reduced costs and increased confidence in project selection.
The report adds that unconventional resources “have earned an irreplaceable position in the upstream sector because of their differentiated scale.”
Despite the renewed interest, it cautions that “commercially successful outcomes are far from a sure thing,” pointing to regulatory, fiscal, and geopolitical risks that could affect project timelines and viability.
