Weak airline demand continues to weigh on the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) market, where Guyana sells eligible forest carbon credits, according to an S&P Global report published on June 24.
The report noted that demand from airlines has not shown a strong rebound despite improved geopolitical sentiment following a US–Iran agreement aimed at easing tensions in West Asia, particularly at the Strait of Hormuz.
Market participants cited weak airline margins, high financing costs, and limited regulatory pressure as key factors constraining purchases.
According to S&P Global, airlines have also shifted spending priorities, with more capital directed toward jet fuel procurement during recent periods of price volatility rather than carbon credit purchases.
“Survival is the priority now for most of the participants, and even after the conclusion of the war, it may take at least another eight months for demand revival in the larger carbon market,” an India-based developer told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.
The Platts-assessed CORSIA price for current-year delivery has dropped significantly, falling to $9.75 per metric tonne of Carbon dioxide (CO₂) equivalent on June 23, compared to $21.75 a year earlier.
“The Platts-assessed CEC current year price has fallen by 37.5% since the start of the war in late February to date,” S&P Global said.
Despite this, Guyana’s position among CORSIA-eligible supply jurisdictions has not changed, supported by its Architecture for REDD+ Transactions (ART), certified under the TREES, which continues to contribute credits into the voluntary aviation compliance framework.
In 2024, Guyana became the first to issue and market CORSIA-eligible credits under the ART standard. The initiative allows the country to generate verified forest-based emissions reductions that are sold as credits to airlines to offset emissions growth.
The country has already issued 33.47 million credits under the ART Trees REDD+ project. In June last year, Apple Inc. purchased 100,000 “vintage 2019” credits, which were retired in 2024 as part of its carbon offset portfolio.
Revenue from these credits is tied to Guyana’s Low Carbon Development Strategy, which directs funds toward climate action, forest conservation, and national development priorities.
