ExxonMobil said market conditions and planned activities are expected to materially affect its fourth quarter 2025 results compared with the third quarter. This is according to a Form 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on January 7.
The filing provides management’s current estimates of factors likely to influence results and does not forecast earnings. It excludes operating performance, foreign exchange movements, unplanned downtime, and ongoing improvement initiatives.
ExxonMobil reported third quarter 2025 earnings, excluding identified items of US$8.1 billion, led by Upstream earnings of US$5.7 billion. Energy Products contributed US$1.8 billion, Chemical Products US$0.5 billion, and Specialty Products US$0.7 billion, while Corporate and Financing recorded a US$0.7 billion loss.
The Q4 earnings are expected to be released on January 31.
Looking to Q4 2025, the company expects lower commodity prices to weigh on results. Changes in liquids prices are estimated to reduce earnings by US$0.8 billion to US$1.2 billion, while gas prices could lower results by US$0.1 billion to US$0.3 billion.
Industry margins are expected to be mixed. Upstream margins could add US$0.3 billion to US$0.7 billion, while Energy Products margins may reduce earnings by US$0.2 billion to US$0.4 billion. Chemical Products margins are expected to range from flat to a US$0.2 billion increase. Timing effects are expected to reduce Upstream earnings by US$0.1 billion to US$0.3 billion, partly offset by a US$0.1 billion to US$0.5 billion benefit in Energy Products.
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Planned and seasonal factors include scheduled maintenance, which could lower Energy Products earnings by up to US$0.2 billion, with smaller impacts across Chemical and Specialty Products. Year-end inventory effects are expected to be modest but uneven across segments.
The filing also outlines identified items that may affect the quarter. Divestments in Energy Products are expected to add US$0.6 billion to US$0.8 billion. Impairments are estimated at US$1.0 billion to US$1.2 billion for Energy Products and US$0.2 billion to US$0.4 billion each for Chemical and Specialty Products. Restructuring charges at the corporate level are expected to range up to US$0.2 billion.
ExxonMobil holds a 45% interest in Guyana’s Stabroek Block. Hess holds 30%, while CNOOC holds 25%.
