Guyana received about US$2.47 billion (GY$515 billion) in revenues from the oil sector in 2025, according to an examination of 15 Natural Resource Fund (NRF) reports for the year. That total marks a decline from US$2.57 billion earned in 2024, as lower prices offset gains from rising production.
The 2025 inflows comprised more than US$2.1 billion (GY$443 billion) from government oil sales, over US$330 million (GY$69 billion) from royalties, and US$15 million (GY$3 billion) in signature bonus payments. Together, these revenues were paid into the NRF, which is held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and receives all petroleum revenues on behalf of the state.
The year-on-year decline was driven by weaker earnings from oil sales and royalties. Oil prices for Guyana’s crude grades started 2025 around US$80 per barrel, but trended downward over the course of the year, falling below US$60 per barrel and dipping into the mid-US$50s by December. The general price erosion in the market reflected, in large part, an oversupply of crude in the Atlantic Basin, according to analysts from S&P Global Energy.
At the same time, production offshore Guyana increased significantly. The Yellowtail development began producing oil in August 2025 and ramped up to its initial production target of 250,000 barrels per day (b/d) by November, lifting total national production capacity to more than 900,000 b/d. Despite the additional volumes, the revenue decrease in 2025 illustrated the sensitivity of Guyana’s financial position to global market conditions.
ExxonMobil has lined up a series of offshore projects, backed by general guidance from the Guyana government that the oil and gas should be produced quickly to beat the energy transition. The government is of the view, in line with some international groups, that the global demand for oil will plateau, then gradually decline. Guyana wants to capitalize on fairly high oil prices, paired with the profitability of projects, Exxon has noted low breakevens.
An examination of production data from January to November, combined with crude export volumes for December, indicates a conservative estimate of more than 250 million barrels of crude produced in 2025.
Royalties were paid into the NRF on a quarterly basis, with four deposits recorded in January, April, July, and October. These payments are related to oil produced and sold in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025. Royalties for oil produced and sold in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to be paid in January 2026 and reflected in the NRF report for that month.
Oil sales revenues credited to the fund in 2025 were linked to more than 30 cargoes, each estimated at roughly one million barrels. Two of those cargoes were produced in 2024 but paid into the NRF in January 2025, while the remainder were produced and paid within 2025. Payments for some crude produced late in the year are expected to be reflected in NRF inflows in early 2026.
Signature bonus payments totaled US$15 million in 2025 and were made in two tranches. The NRF received US$3.75 million in November and US$11.25 million in December. In November, the government signed a production sharing agreement for the S4 shallow water block with a consortium led by TotalEnergies alongside QatarEnergy and Petronas, carrying a US$15 million signature bonus. In December, the government then signed a separate production sharing agreement for the S7 block with Cybele Energy, which carried a US$17 million signature bonus. The NRF reports do not identify the payer.
All current crude production in Guyana comes from the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block offshore. ExxonMobil holds a 45% stake in the block, alongside Hess with 30%, and CNOOC with 25%. Hess was acquired by Chevron in 2025. ExxonMobil has announced significant discoveries totaling 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the block.
Under the production sharing agreement governing the Stabroek Block, the contractor group can recover their expenses by taking up to 75% of gross production in any year as ‘cost oil’. The remaining 25%, known as ‘profit oil’, is split evenly between the State and the companies, giving Guyana about 12.5% of annual production, which it sells. In addition, Guyana receives a 2% royalty on the value of all crude produced and sold. During the cost recovery phase, this structure results in the State receiving about 14.5% of the gross value of production, with the remainder allocated to cost recovery and the contractors’ share of profit oil.
Cost recovery to date exceeds US$35 billion, while total committed investment in the Stabroek Block has surpassed US$50 billion and continues to rise. Seven oil developments have been sanctioned so far, four of which are producing. Over time, as the bulk of development and other costs are cleared and less crude is required for cost recovery, a larger share of production would be available as profit oil, increasing Guyana’s take under the existing contract structure. Every new project adds further capital expenditure, which extends the period over which cost recovery remains high.
As output expanded and prices weakened in 2025, the majority of the produced barrels were shipped to Europe. Panama and the Netherlands consistently featured among the biggest takers of Guyanese crude, with record volumes going to the United States.
