Guyana’s crude oil grades have fallen to their lowest levels since the COVID-19 pandemic era, with prices dipping below US$60 per barrel in recent weeks, even as ExxonMobil’s fast-growing output and low breakevens keep the oil competitive.
Data published on the Ministry of Natural Resources’ Petroleum Management Program website show that Liza, Unity Gold and Payara Gold have traded mostly below US$60 per barrel since early December. Prices briefly slid to between about US$55 and US$57 per barrel in mid-December, before recovering slightly to the US$59 range as of January 5, with Brent trading close to US$63 per barrel.
The government has not published price data for the newest crude grade, Golden Arrowhead.
The recent price weakness reflects broader market conditions. An increasingly saturated European market, combined with ample global supply, has weighed on prices, prompting some Guyana cargoes to seek alternative destinations, OilNOW’s tracking shows. While Europe typically absorbs the largest share of Guyana’s crude, a growing number of barrels late last year were shipped to Asia, including China and India, and rarer destinations like Malaysia and Thailand. One cargo even made it to South Africa.
Lower prices appear to have made Guyana’s crude more attractive to opportunistic buyers in regions that historically purchased fewer cargoes, even as Europe remains the single largest regional destination overall.
The current price levels are notable because they mark the weakest pricing since the pandemic shock of 2020, when Brent crude briefly collapsed to around US$19 per barrel amid a sudden demand freeze and widespread lockdowns that crippled transport and left tankers idling at sea.
Still, Guyana’s projects remain highly resilient. The breakeven prices for the country’s first four developments — Liza, Unity Gold, Payara Gold and Golden Arrowhead — are estimated at between US$25 and US$35 per barrel, allowing them to remain profitable even during downturns.
The downturn comes as Guyana’s oil output continues to rise sharply. Production is expected to average more than 700,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and rise to 900,000 b/d for much of 2026, before the Uaru project starts production.
Despite higher volumes, softer prices could constrain the pace of growth in state revenues and company earnings. Last year, the Guyana government projected it would earn less from oil sales and royalties than it did in 2024, despite higher expected production. The early start-up of the Yellowtail project caused 2025 State revenues to eventually outstrip the prior year, according to the government’s mid-2025 estimate, but total oil exports still underperformed the previous year by some US$550 million.
Looking ahead, price forecasts suggest continued pressure. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude to average about US$55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and remain near that level through the year, while Wood Mackenzie forecasts an annual average Brent price just under US$60 per barrel in 2026.
