South America’s upcoming oil developments, including several in Guyana, are gaining increased importance due to recent developments in the Middle East, Norway-based Rystad Energy said in an April 21 analysis.
“The Middle East conflict has done more than spike oil prices — it has exposed how dangerously concentrated global supply chains are around the Strait of Hormuz. South America is now positioned as the world’s most consequential source of incremental supply. The region offers scale, geologic quality and relative political stability at exactly the moment that the world is shopping for alternatives,” said Radhika Bansal, Senior Vice President, Oil and Gas Research.
Rystad Energy raised its 2026 Brent price forecast to US$89 per barrel, up from US$60 projected in January, citing tighter supply expectations linked to Middle East risks.
Guyana’s next set of offshore projects awaiting approval are set to unlock a key share of new global oil supply, as markets respond to disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, according to Rystad Energy.
Across the region, offshore developments in Guyana, Brazil and Suriname were identified as the most immediate sources of new supply. The firm said a sustained US$100-per-barrel oil price could unlock up to 2.1 million barrels per day (b/d) of additional crude supply across South America by the mid-2030s, with a large portion tied to projects that have not yet reached final investment decision.
Rystad Energy said that if these unsanctioned projects are fast-tracked, they could deliver more than one million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) over the next decade, supported by about US$33 billion in greenfield investment through 2035.
In Guyana, developments led by ExxonMobil in the Stabroek Block are advancing through a multi-phase development pipeline. Projects such as Uaru and Hammerhead are already sanctioned, while others, including subsequent developments tied to discoveries like Longtail and Haimara, have not yet moved to the investment decision stage.
Rystad Energy said debottlenecking across Errea Wittu, Jaguar and Hammerhead could add 80,000 to 90,000 b/d. It noted that the largest gains will come from earlier approvals of new projects, particularly those still awaiting sanction in Guyana’s development queue.
The firm also identified limited global shipyard capacity for floating production, storage and offloading vessels as a key constraint that could slow the pace at which new projects are brought online.
