The latest monthly report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) states that Russia and the USA are expected to be the main drivers of next year’s oil supply growth, contributing increments of 1.0 mb/d and 0.9 mb/d, respectively, followed by Brazil, Norway, Guyana, among others.
With respect to world oil supply, the report notes that non-OPEC liquids supply is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2021, unchanged from last month’s assessment, to average 63.6 mb/d. OilNOW understands that the main drivers of 2021 supply growth continue to be Canada, Russia, China, Norway, Brazil, and Guyana.
The forecast for non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is also unchanged at 3.0 mb/d to average 66.7 mb/d. Russia and the US are expected to be the main drivers of next year’s growth, contributing increments of 1.0 mb/d and 0.9 mb/d, respectively, followed by Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Norway, Guyana and other countries.
As for global oil demand, this is now estimated to reach 96.4 mb/d in 2021. For 2022, growth in demand remains unchanged compared to the previous month’s assessment, to stand at 4.2 mb/d.
The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) which contains the foregoing forecasts covers major issues affecting the world oil market and provides an outlook for crude oil market developments for the coming year. The report also provides a detailed analysis of key developments impacting oil market trends in world oil demand, supply as well as the oil market balance.
Phase 2 of the Liza Development will come on stream early next year adding 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the country’s output. A third project at Payara, and a fourth at Yellowtail, which is pending government approvals, will see the South American country producing over 800,000 bpd by 2025.